The U.S. Must Not Repeat 1953

August 05, 2009

Hossein Askari

The 1953 overthrow of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq by the CIA may have been the single most important foreign policy blunder of the United States in the post-WWII era. For the US, that decision may have been the catalyst for years of turmoil in the Middle East, including terrorism, hostage taking, 9/11, two wars in Iraq, a war in Afghanistan, and no end in sight in terms of anti-Americanism in the Muslim world. While for Iran it ushered years of dictatorship, followed by the Iranian Revolution, the war with Iraq, the emigration of Iranians to the US and elsewhere, years of lost development and economic growth, a sharp movement from secularism to religion, and now an oppressive and dictatorial regime couched in false religiosity.

In 1953, the US, along with Britain, turned a blind eye to democratic values and the rule of law, and single-mindedly pursued short-term interests—stability and access to Iranian oil on terms favorable to the two superpowers. Today the US could be about to embrace another dictatorial regime in Tehran in pursuit of short-term interests, again to the detriment of the hopes and aspirations of the Iranian people. This time Washington’s support for the regime in Tehran is been masked under the cover of dialogue and rapprochement as opposed to former President Bush’s confrontational policies.

Recently, the Obama Administration, with the rest of the G-8 in tow, adopted a soft, albeit tough sounding, stand against the regime in Tehran. The West has given the mullahs until September to start meaningful dialogue, hinting at many benefits to follow, especially non-aggression toward the reign of the mullahs. The US has set the September date, clearly sensing the vulnerability of the regime over the next two months, including the 40-day remembrance of the death of Neda in late July, the young woman killed by the mullahs’ thugs. To sweeten the deal and to send a signal of “friendship” to the mullahs, the US on July 9 released five Iranian “diplomats” held in Iraq for two years.

If the US would abstain from legitimizing the regime, this is a chance for Iranians to usher in a new era. The regime is vulnerable. The regular military and the Revolutionary Guards have been dismayed by the cracks in the clerical hierarchy and by the increasing role of the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba, in their affairs. Some leaders of the Revolutionary Guards have been arrested. In fact, today the bassej and elements of the Revolutionary Guards are the only part of the military willing to brutally confront fellow citizens.

Most importantly the regime has all but lost its religious cover. After the election, Grand Ayatollah Saneii rebuked the regime and the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qum issued a declaration against the regime. On July 10, the most senior Grand Ayatollah in Iran, Hossein Ali Montazeri, pronounced the regime unjust and illegitimate and forbade all cooperation with the regime. At Friday prayers on July 17, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a cautious pragmatist sensing that all may be lost, all but said that the Supreme Leader should be replaced and quoted a saying of the Prophet Muhammad that without the approval of the people, a regime has no legal standing. On July 19, former President Khattami proposed a referendum on the legitimacy of the presidential election. These are developments that were unimaginable only two months ago!

What has been set in motion is unstoppable. There are even talks in Qum that the majority of the senior ayatollahs may leave Iran and go to Najaf in Iraq; a number have already left Qum for Meshed. The regime has lost its religious legitimacy in the eyes of the majority of Iranians. The process will be complete when, not if, three or four other Grand Ayatollahs, follow in Ayatollah Montazeri’s footstep. Appeals have been also made to Grand Ayatollah Sistani of Iraq, the most revered cleric in Shia Islam, to intervene and to put an end to the trashing of Shia Islam at the hands of Iran’s Supreme Leader, a mid-level cleric who was catapulted into political power in 1989 by people who stood to benefit.

For the Obama Administration this is absolutely wrong time to reach out to this regime. Yes, the regime is more vulnerable to US pressures and the Obama Administration may be able to point to a breakthrough.. But the US is fooling itself if it believes that it will get anything it really wants from the mullahs and what good is a deal today with a regime that the US embraces and which then gets booted out? What will Washington look like to the Iranian people if it is once again on the side of illegitimacy? Cozying up to the mullahs could subject the people of Iran to a prolonged era of dictatorship. It is time to abandon myopic considerations in favor of upholding the American ideals of human dignity and human rights. A six-month delay will not be the end of the world if the US would just lay aside its preoccupation with Iran’s nuclear program. How can the US expect Iranians to forget again? 1953 was enough! The world is watching.

Hossein Askari is the Iran professor of Business and International Affairs at the George Washington University.