U.S. Middle East Fixation: Oil Security and Political Stability

February 19, 2009

Hossein Askari

With the election of Barak Obama, a large segment of the US policy community has lapsed into wishful thinking. These experts hope that the election of an inspirational president will magically transform Washington’s confrontational relations with the rest of the world, especially with the Middle East and the oil-exporting countries of the Persian Gulf, and make them harmonious. Nothing could be more illusory. US relations with the Middle East will continue to fester no matter who the president is as long as Washington continues to base its Middle East policy on three entirely false premises: “friendly” regimes must rule the major oil-exporting countries if oil supplies are to be secure; short-term political stability in the Middle East, as opposed to movement toward pluralistic rule and economic progress, is of paramount importance to long-term US national security; and the US can afford to be a biased broker in disputes between Middle East countries.

First, let’s look at security of oil supplies. The US does not need friendly regimes running the major oil-exporting countries to enjoy security of oil supplies. Oil is sold in the global marketplace like most other commodities. Buyers need the oil and sellers need the revenues. Buyers would like to pay the lowest price and sellers would like to receive the highest price; the only proviso is that sellers want a price that is consistent with the largest revenues over time because a very high price today would kill demand in the future and bring on new and alternative supplies, thus reducing their long-term revenues. No matter who rules these countries, their needs will be the same and they will behave accordingly. The only situation that would be dangerous for US interests and for the rest of the world is if oil reserves become more consolidated, through military takeovers, country mergers or total cooperation between oil exporters, who could then extract monopoly profits and rents from buyers. In the end, even though our friends the Al-Sauds rule Saudi Arabia and our buddies the Al-Sabbahs rule Kuwait, we are not getting a better deal from them than what we are getting from Chavez in Venezuela.

Second, and in large part because of financial concerns, we believe that in order to preserve our national interests we should discourage political change in countries whose rulers we have befriended. It matters little to us that these rulers might be inept or unjust. Remember Iran under the Shah. Remember Iraq under Saddam Hussein from 1979 to 1990. We have supported, and continue to support, all sorts of dictators who have abused the rights of their people. We don’t realize that these countries may well blow up without advance warning and undermine our long-term interests at some point in the future. We should abandon our resistance toward change because the longer we persist in our quest to keep the lid on dissent the more traumatic the blow up when it comes. And it will come. Our support of oppressive dictators cannot be forever covered up by the soaring rhetoric of a new US President.

Third, when we unfairly support one country at the expense of another, we risk the national anger of our presumed adversary. Although the Israeli-Palestinian issue may be the focus of much Arab anger, US support of Saddam Hussein in the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq has affected a generation of Iranians for years to come. Our policies toward all countries in the Middle East should promote long-term cooperation and peace among all the countries in the region. This includes supporting the territorial security of each country and working toward reducing the ongoing arms race in the region even if it adversely affects our own arms industry.

Will President Obama adopt a fundamental and generational shift in US policies toward the Middle East or will he try to make small changes on the edges and repeat the mistakes of the past? Time, not wishful thinking, will tell.

Hossein Askari is Iran Professor of Business and International Affairs at the George Washington University.